ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The Buffalo Bills face the Miami Dolphins for a week nine matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Bills already picked up a 31-10 win over their division rival in Week 2 at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Channel 2 sports team each gives a key to the game before things get underway inside Highmark Stadium at 1 p.m. Sunday.
Jon Scott — Pressure Tua
The Dolphins offense is completely reliant on timing.
Tua Tagovailoa is at his best when the ball gets out of his hand as fast as possible.
We’ve seen how that Miami O can get off track by disrupting that timing by forcing Tagovailoa to hold onto the ball longer.
That is why I think the Bills pass rush is a big factor this Sunday.
Here are the pressure rates Tua has faced against Buffalo throughout his career.
- 2020: 9.8%
- 2021: 50% and 46.5%
- 2022: 31.6% and 24.2%
- 2023: 29.3% and 28.6%
- 2024: 7.1%
Pressure has not meant sacks, with mostly one or two per game, even with those high rates.
Still, Tagovailoa’s only thrown for over 300 yards once against the Bills, coming in a blowout loss in 2020.
He’ll now contend with a front that is welcoming back Von Miller fresh off a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy. Miller registered a sack in the first game against Miami this season, though it was of Skylar Thompson after Tagovailoa left the game with a concussion.
Disrupt the timing of Tua, and the Bills defense should limit this potentially prolific offense again.
Jonathan Acosta — Home ‘Cooking’
These are two keys in one.
First, Buffalo has played its best football this season in front of Bills Mafia.
In three home games so far, the Bills are 3-0, scoring an average of 38.3 points and an average margin of victory of 18.3 points.
The Bills have been able to overcome slow starts in two of those wins (against the Cardinals and Titans) by shifting into another gear in the second half, while the 37-point win over Jacksonville was a game in which Buffalo was firing on all cylinders from the beginning.
Orchard Park also treated the Bills well the last time they hosted the Dolphins, a 48-20 win in Week 4 last season that was arguably the most complete game Sean McDermott’s team played the entire season.
Continuing to take advantage of being at Highmark Stadium and having the support of the home crowd is a replicable recipe for success, and one the team would certainly like to see continue on Sunday.
Secondly, James Cook absolutely feasted the last time these two teams met in the 31-10 win for the Bills in Week 2. Cook totaled 95 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 12 total touches, which led to AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Not only does Cook already have one big game against Miami this year, but he’s also coming off one of his best games of the season. The second year back ran for 111 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle, posting the first game of his career with 100+ rush yards and at least two scores.
After missing the win at the Jets with a toe injury and having a quiet game yardage-wise the following week against Tennessee (12 carries for 32 yards and a TD), Cook looked healthy and explosive in the Pacific Northwest.
The last thing the Dolphins will want to see Sunday is an encore performance from Cook that would give what should be an electric home crowd that much more to cheer about.
Lindsey Moppert — Allen’s Dominance vs. Dolphins
It’s no secret that Josh Allen has played some of his best football when facing the Bills’ division rival, the Miami Dolphins.
Allen owns a dominant 11-2 record against the Dolphins in 13 regular season games. In those matchups, he has completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,502 yards and 34 touchdowns.
Looking back at the Bills’ 31-10 road victory over the Dolphins in Week 2, Allen continued this trend of dominance despite many concerns regarding his injured left hand.
However, running back James Cook went on to carry most of the weight in that division game at Hard Rock Stadium. Cook caught one touchdown pass and ran for two more scores in the first half alone, taking a lot of pressure off Allen and his hand.
In addition, not only does Allen have an impressive history against the Dolphins, but Bills coach Sean McDermott is 8-0 against Miami when hosting in Orchard Park since being hired back in 2017.
The Dolphins are now coming to Orchard Park on Sunday afternoon looking for their first win at Highmark Stadium since the 2016 season. The Bills on the other hand have won nine of their last 10 games against Miami.
Another dominant performance from Allen and the Bills offense on Sunday could not only lead to a 7-2 record for Buffalo, but it would also give the Bills a five-game lead over the Dolphins in the AFC East race.