ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the New England Patriots Sunday at Gillette Stadium:
1. I’m hesitant to say the Bills should win comfortably, given how my similar prediction for last Sunday night’s game against the New York Giants worked out.
For all the dominance the Bills showed in beating two of the weaker opponents on their schedule so far, Las Vegas and Washington, the Bills also have demonstrated a tendency to play down to their competition. That happened in their loss against Jacksonville and on the way to needing to sweat out the final play to beat the Giants.
Nevertheless, the Pats are awful. They continue to drift far away from the team that once dominated the Bills and the rest of the NFL. In the post-Tom Brady era, all that they have in common with those Patriot clubs are the uniforms. Yes, they also have the same coach, Bill Belichick, but their play has been so poor, it has even caused significant national buzz about his future with the franchise.
Therefore, I will, again, project a lopsided Bills victory. Despite injuries to key players on defense, the Bills still have a distinct talent advantage. They have considerably more offensive firepower, even if they haven’t shown enough of it of late. They have a defense that has continued to find a way to thrive while missing some important pieces.
2. Since 2020 and including the postseason, Josh Allen has a 6-1 record against the Patriots (with four consecutive wins), throwing 18 touchdowns to two interceptions and amassing a 113.0 passer rating. It’s fair to say he owns the Pats.
Allen’s run of success against New England should continue Sunday against a defense that no longer resembles the units Belichick once could count on to pounce on opponents’ mistakes. The Pats have an NFL-low three takeaways.
Allen suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to appear on the Bills’ injury list. He was a limited participant in Wednesday’s walk-through practice, but practiced fully Thursday and Friday, eliminating doubt that he’ll be full go by kickoff.
Belichick undoubtedly will try to attack Allen and the Bills’ offense with the blitzing the Jaguars and Giants used to frustrate them the past two weeks. However, those games should help Buffalo’s offensive preparation and ability to solve some of the problems the Pats’ blitz might pose.
3. Ken Dorsey has taken plenty of heat for the slow starts of the Bills’ offense the past two weeks.
That goes with the territory for an offensive coordinator.
Some of it is justified. When the offense is as out of rhythm as the Bills’ have looked for large portions of the last eight quarters, the man putting together the game plans and calling the plays is bound to get his share of the blame. Dorsey needs to figure out ways to give the offense a more immediate spark through the types of plays he installs and when he calls them.
He must get the running game involved much sooner than he did last Sunday night, when it finally appeared late in the game. Effective running has done plenty to help open things up when the Bills throw.
Allen and the rest of the members of the offense also deserve some of the second-guessing. Against the Giants, Allen got away from the mostly patient approach he had taken through the previous five games. He went back to forcing throws, focusing far too much on connecting with Stefon Diggs rather than spreading the ball out to other targets.
The Bills’ offense is at its best when the passing attack is balanced, complemented by a solid ground game.
4. The Bills’ defense took another hit with the toe injury that will sideline tackle Ed Oliver Sunday. That will put additional pressure on Jordan Phillips and other members of the D-line to pick up the slack already created by DaQuan Jones suffering a torn pectoral muscle that likely has ended his season.
Oliver had been playing well and helping the Bills’ defense remain solid despite the absences of Jones, linebacker Matt Milano (likely gone for the season after undergoing surgery on his knee and leg), and cornerback Tre’Davious White (out for the year with a torn Achilles).
Still, it’s fair to expect Phillips to do his part to help minimize the depletion of the defensive front. He’s a good run-stuffer, something that figures to be noticeable against the Patriots’ weak running game.
The Pats continue to get underwhelming play from quarterback Mac Jones, who has been mistake-prone behind a bad offensive line.
5. If the game goes as expected, there could very well be substantial backlash for Bill Belichick.
He’s already facing greater scrutiny about his coaching/personnel mastery than at any point since becoming the Patriots’ coach in 2000. There have been repeated calls by NFL analysts for Belichick to at least give up his duties as general manager because of the team’s shortage of quality players. There also has been speculation Patriots owner Robert Kraft might already have run out of patience with Belichick and that they could part ways.
An ugly loss Sunday wouldn’t necessarily trigger a coaching change during the season, but it likely would intensify the talk that Belichick could/should be on his way out of New England.