BUFFALO, N.Y. — We are now two months away from the total solar eclipse, and as you start to make your plans, you might be wondering what the chances are of it actually being a sunny day.
We went straight to the source on Thursday, chief meteorologist Patrick Hammer. He pulled a bunch of information for us about what the skies could look like on April 8.
"This is a map of cloud cover climatology for April 8th, all of the April 8ths that we've measured going back like some 40 or 50 years, OK?" Hammer said. "In El Nino years, which is what we're currently in, that plays a little bit of a role. What you see here are shades of grey that is 70 to 80-percent cloud cover on most April 8ths.
"But where Buffalo is, we're in the 60 to 70 percent cloud cover zone, meaning the closer to the lake you are, probably the better chance of getting some partial or total clearing."
2 On Your Side's Kelly Dudzik asked: "So this is information for Erie, Pennsylvania, but it would be similar to the weather we experience here?"
Hammer: "We don't have exact cloud cover data saved for Buffalo, OK? So we found a site that's relatively close. Cloudy skies happen 55 percent of the time, so half the days are totally cloudy. Thirty-five percent of the days have a broken sky, meaning it will be partly cloudy, we still have a good chance of seeing the eclipse, even though some clouds could roll through. Fifteen percent of days are clear."
Dudzik: "How close to the eclipse do you think you'll have a pretty good idea of whether the skies will be clear or not based on the models you receive and how far out they go?"
Hammer: "I will say that one of the toughest things to forecast here is not always snow and rain, it's cloud cover. Within five days, we'll have a good chance as to whether or not it's going to be a total loss because we see a storm coming. But I think it's probably going to be the day before where we can say with confidence every community that has a certain cloud percentage. I know that doesn't give you a lot of lead time, but that's just honestly how clouds work."
Even if it is cloudy on April 8, you will still be able to see it get darker outside. Hammer says it is likely that if it isn't sunny here in Western New York, it will be somewhere else.