NEW YORK — A new poll by Siena College shows Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leading Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin by 11 points, down from 17 last month.
“Over the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he must overcome from 17 points to 11 points in trying to become the first Republican in 20 years to win statewide. However, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the upper hand, based on the 84-10% support she gets from Democrats, who represent half of the state’s enrolled voters,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Zeldin has further solidified his Republican support, 81-12%, up from 77-17%, and has increased his lead among independents from three points to nine points, 49-40% since the last poll three weeks ago.
“Hochul maintains a commanding lead in New York City, 70-23%, however, her five-point lead in the downstate suburbs in September has turned into a four-point lead for Zeldin in October. Zeldin’s lead upstate is four points, up from one point in September,” Greenberg said. “Women continue to give Hochul a two-to-one lead, 61-32%, however, men have flipped and now favor Zeldin by five points, after favoring Hochul by four points last month. Hochul has an overwhelming 92-2% lead with Black voters, a 56-38% lead with Latinos, and white voters are virtually evenly divided, after favoring Hochul by 10 points in September.”
According to the poll, Hochul has a 45-41% favorability rating and a 52-45% job approval rating, both of which are down a bit from last month. The poll also shows Zeldin with a negative 37-41% favorability rating.
“Two-thirds of Democrats continue to view Hochul favorably and she’s only underwater with independents by five points currently, compared to 15 points last month. However, after making some gains with Republicans last month, 23% viewed her favorably, Republicans now view Hochul unfavorably 15-77%,” Greenberg said. “Not surprisingly, Zeldin has become more well-known to voters as the campaign has heated up. However, one in five voters still doesn’t have an opinion about him, and among those who do, he remains slightly underwater."
“While Democrats are bullish on the direction of the state, Republicans overwhelmingly, and independents by a wide margin are not. That works to Zeldin’s advantage, as does the fact that the issues most important to voters – at least as of three weeks ago – play more into the messaging of the Zeldin campaign rather than the Hochul campaign,” Greenberg said. “That said, Zeldin must still overcome a wide enrollment disadvantage, and must attract more than 10% of Democrats and 49% of independents to be successful in New York. Hochul maintains a double-digit lead and simply needs Democrats to vote. Simple in theory. Three weeks to go.”
You can read the full poll results on the Siena College website.