BUFFALO, N.Y. — A political guessing game is underway after sources told 2 On Your Side and other media outlets that U.S. Rep. Brian Higgins will step down after spending the past 18 years in Washington in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The word is he will take over as president and CEO of Shea's Performing Arts Center in Buffalo.
There are all sorts of scenarios that may be in play if indeed there is a resignation by the longtime incumbent Democrat. 2 On Your Side sought some help from two political scientists to sort through some of them.
If resignation is really in the cards for Higgins, political observers say the rumors had recent relevance.
UB Political Science Professor Dr. Shawn Donahue points out, "When his longtime chief of staff took another job, you know that was kind of like, hmm? He's been his chief of staff since he got elected, and now he's taking another job. Why?"
So if the resignation talk is true, that triggers a required response from Gov. Kathy Hochul.
"With a vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives there is no appointment authority. It's required to have a special election."
Donahue says Governor Hochul must set a special election date within 10 days of a formal U.S. Representative resignation, and from there, a 70 to 80-day time limit for a special election. That is just as we've seen before with the resignations of Republicans Tom Reed and Chris Collins.
So now, in a largely safe Democratic 26th District with urban Buffalo and Niagara Falls, Erie County Democratic leaders are probably hearing from would-be candidates. That could include state senators Tim Kennedy or Sean Ryan, maybe Mayor Byron Brown, who looks forward "at the appropriate time to conversation about the future" of the diverse district. Or even recently elected Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz.
But that could present a Democratic dilemma of sorts with another ripple effect special election for that replacement to be replaced. Dr. Jacob Neiheisel, who is also with the UB Political Science Department, said "the names that everyone's been talking about, I know that all of them looking in some way or another as to what they might like to do in terms of moving up in the world."
Neiheisel added: "The Democrats are going to have a have a conversation about who they need where to meet their goals, and who best fits the profile of somebody who can immediately step in to Higgins' shoes."
Donahue sums it up like this: "There are probably a number of potential candidates that are making a lot of phone calls, probably maybe dropping in on the chairman and other members of the Erie County Democratic Committee."
Then we could toss in another potential scenario. With concerns about maybe replacing a Democratic replacement, perhaps they could opt for a caretaker special election candidate like the Erie County party chair Jeremy Zellner himself, as we saw in a similar way with Republican Tom Reed's resignation in 2022. That person perhaps holding it until the 2024 regular election.
Donahue said: "If it were to be Senator Ryan or Senator Kennedy who was chosen and then presumably would win in a special election, that would trigger a new special election for their seat that would have to be filled. And kind of like you were saying there, you have potential redistricting kind of coming back in the legislature. It's a question of would they need that seat?"
Neiheisel told us: "I think you could see someone like Zellner step in and say, 'You know what? I'd like to throw my hat in the ring as well.' He's worn a lot of hats in the area, as it stands, being a part of the board of elections but also as Democratic Party chair. He's certainly somebody who knows how the system works."
As expected, there has been no response so far from Congressman Higgins' office or Zellner, who will again have a big say in a potential successor to Higgins.
Whatever the case, Higgins had a lot of power accumulated over 18 years with a seat on House Ways and Means Committee, which largely decides on taxes and where the federal money goes. So we will see when Higgins announces, who replaces him, and what happens next.