CHEEKTOWAGA, N.Y. — Just about all the winners in the ballots cast in early voting and Tuesday's regular election for county and local government have been determined except for one significant race in one significant community.
That would be the Town of Cheektowaga, where the two dueling candidates for town supervisor are still in the race with no call due to the very slim margin for the leader.
Erie County Elections Commissioner Ralph Mohr walked us through what may happen in this situation.
The vote counting was still underway Wednesday afternoon with a just received batch of absentee ballots, including 60 from Cheektowaga. That is where town supervisor candidates Brian Nowak, of the Democratic and Working Families parties, and Michael Jasinski, of the Republican and Conservative parties, are basically in a dead heat. Nowak leads currently with a 47 vote margin out of over 17,800 ballots cast.
So even though Nowak posted to Facebook that he felt comfortable in his lead and ready to start work as town supervisor in January, it is really not over yet for the Erie County Board of Elections, which must go beyond the traditional vote verification.
Mohr, as Republican commissioner, explained it this way.
"The state law says that if it's within that one half of 1 percent difference between the candidates or under 20 votes, that we will then do a manual recount of each and every paper ballot that was cast," Mohr said.
This vote tabulation gets even more complicated considering absentee ballots for military or overseas voters can still come in during a 13-day window, as long as they're postmarked by election day. Also, there are 109 affidavit ballots placed in envelopes at polling places for voters with uncertain voting sites due to a recent address change or redistricting. Mohr said verification there is maybe a week to complete.
Then let us go back to that mandatory recount process for extremely low vote margins, like Cheektowaga, where sometimes legal challenges are filed.
"We have the candidates and their representatives involved in each and every step of the counting, so they can come to the table, they can raise any objections that they have. We will explain why we're counting a vote one way or the other," Mohr said.
Mohr says usually recounts do end matching the original tabulation, but it all takes time.
"If we get in to a situation where we have a manual recount, we can be looking around Thanksgiving before we're able to declare a winner in this race," Mphr said.
And when asked if Nowak's Facebook posting might be a bit premature, Mohr responded: "We'll we see a number of instances in which it's mathematically possible for the lead to change. But in probability it doesn't. In this case it is very close. And with the number of ballots that are still out, certainly better to be ahead than behind. But it's going to be what the Board of Elections ends up counting, which is going to determine who the winner of race is."
Elections commissioner Mohr said five votes decided a past family court judge race, and it was actually January for a Congressional determination with legal filings.
That probably would not happen this time, but this was a hotly contested race for the parties, with both candidates on the Cheektowaga town board known for political infighting.
Jasinski deferred comment with the tight race.