BUFFALO, N.Y. — After weeks of playing with the idea of running for Congress, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said in a statement Sunday that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for New York’s soon-to-be-vacant 26th Congressional District seat.
Since U.S. Rep. Brian Higgins’ announcement last month that he would be vacating the seat in early 2024, the county executive has been at the center of speculation and viewed as a possible frontrunner to enter the special election race.
He was one of the favorites alongside Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and Democratic State Senator Tim Kennedy, who is the only candidate to throw his hat in the race so far officially.
But Poloncarz’s decision now leaves political analysts wondering what the future for Brown and other candidates could be.
“I think every day that goes by that candidate either drops out a potential candidate drops out or no one gets in enhances the chances of Tim Kennedy,” political analyst Carl Calabrese said.
Calabrese said he likes Kennedy’s chances, but after Brown was not selected as the new president at Buffalo State University last week, he wonders if that could change his decision on the congressional seat.
“Everyone has been speculating that the mayor might get the presidency of Buffalo State University,” Calabrese said. “That didn't happen this past week. And so that may help him make his decision whether to stay put or make a run.”
The 26th Congressional District has been a stronghold for Democrats, voting blue in the last five general elections. But political experts say that isn’t discouraging Republicans from making a push.
“The Republican chairman has said he intends to field a Republican candidate, and he said that publicly and frankly,” Calabrese said. “He said it to me personally.”
Calabrese said he expects the Republicans will seek to nominate a candidate that currently holds office and make the claim that even with the odds stacked against them, the Republicans could have a chance in a special election where voter turnout is often low.
However, 2 On Your Side learned that if the Republicans don’t have a candidate they are excited about, they could consider throwing their support behind Brown as they did in the 2021 mayoral race.
The special election will take place in early 2024, but Governor Kathy Hochul will make the final decision on when. That election is not the end of the road for the winner, as other candidates could challenge in the June primary ahead of November’s general election.