BUFFALO, NY – The counting of absentee, and emergency ballots cast in Erie County was completed Tuesday evening and the results indicate that in the race for Congress in New York's 27th District, democrat Nate McMurray came up short in his bid to defy long odds and overturn the results from Election night, which showed him trailing incumbent republican Chris Collins. .
While the race did tighten after McMurray picked up roughly 1,400 votes through the counting of absentees in the eight counties comprising the 27th, it still left him about 1,500 short of flipping the outcome of the unofficial count from November 6. (see latest totals below).
"It appears that it's mathematically impossible for Mr. McMurray to make up the difference and change the outcome," said republican Erie County Election's Commissioner.
Just after the totals were announced, McMurray told WGRZ-TV he would need the night to assess things, and would likely hold a news conference on Wednesday.
Heading into Tuesday, following the counting of the outstanding votes in the other seven counties in this district, Collins has seen his 3,000 vote lead on election night shrink to about 2,200 votes.
However, Erie County had the lion’s share of the outstanding votes at stake.
All Eyes on Erie County
When the smoke cleared after election night, the Erie County Board of Elections was in possession of approximately 5,588 absentee ballots, 433 emergency ballots and 1,454 affidavit ballots, 931 of which were ruled admissible for the counting which began Tuesday morning.
The total of outstanding votes in Erie County represented nearly half the number of the absentee/affidavit votes filed in the entire 27th district.
Considering that absentee ballots generally mirrors the results of those votes cast at polling sites on Election Day, and that McMurray unofficially won Erie County by 5,000 votes over Collins, the democrat figured to pick up more votes.
But as far as flipping the unofficial results from that night, McMurray faced long odds indeed, needing to garner nearly three votes for every one Collins received in the outstanding vote count in Erie County in order to change the outcome.
Emergency ballots, which comprise votes cast on Election Day, but which for one reason or another could not be scanned by machines at the polling sites, were counted first on Tuesday.
There were 433 of them, and Nate McMurray got 214 and Chris Collins got 195, so the result was almost evenly split.
Counting of the nearly 5,600 absentee ballots began at 11 am and concluded at about 4pm.
The Latest Numbers
Here are the outcomes of the outstanding vote count including absentee and affidavit, and emergency votes as of 5 PM Tuesday.
Monroe County: McMurray 147 - Collins 101
Ontario County: McMurray 1,050 – Collins 707
Wyoming County: Collins 339 - McMurray 288.
Genesee County: McMurray 556 – Collins 485
Niagara County: McMurray 1,456 – Collins 1,253
Orleans County: Collins 310 – McMurray 257
Livingston County: McMurray 83 – Collins 51
Erie County: McMurray 3,279 - Collins 2,422 (with 931 affidavit ballots left to count.)