BUFFALO, N.Y. — Making Predictions of exactly when we'll see a peak of COVID-19 cases is still a difficult task for health experts because of the many uncertainties about this relatively new form of coronavirus.
That's why we could a number of up and down developments through the course of this pandemic.
There is more of an optimistic assessment about COVID cases seemingly dropping in the metro New York City area. But what about upstate and Western New York?
Dr. David Hughes, chief medical officer for Kaleida, says, "What we've seen in the numbers is that we've plateaued to an extent. What that doesn't mean, though, it doesn't mean that if we did not keep doing those things like social distancing, we would not go right back into a peak situation."
And Dr. Thomas Russo, who is chief of infectious disease studies at the University at Buffalo's Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, says there's another upstate-downstate difference.
"I think it's important to realize that different geographical regions are going to have different curves. They're gonna own their own curves for this epidemic and ours is different than downstate," Russo said.
Russo says that patterns can quickly shift as well.
"In the early part of April, it looked like we had an initial peak, and over the next seven days or so our peak was going downward, based on new cases and hospitalization," he said. "But unfortunately, over the last five days we've had an increase in both hospitalizations and new cases, which is a bit disconcerting."
Dr. Russo says some of that is tied to recent reports of deaths in local nursing homes. But he is quick to add: "Our curve is dictated by how well we abide by public health measures in our community.
"And though I suspect that the majority of individuals have been very vigilant and have been doing a great job with that, these new data show that perhaps a segment of the population has been a little lax in these critical measures."
