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As COVID cases soar in WNY, we take a look back and forward with a top disease expert

So 2 On Your Side asked how we got here and where we might be going.

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The difficult and downright confounding circumstances we have seen here in Western New York and around the world with the coronavirus continue to frustrate medical experts like Dr. Thomas Russo. 

Governor Hochul mentioned his valuable insight as UB's Infectious Disease Chief. 

So 2 On Your Side asked him again, how we got here and where we might be going.

Dr. Russo and his counterparts were hopeful last November with the COVID vaccine on the horizon. 

Here is what he said back then as 2020 was drawing to a close. 

"We have vaccines coming but unfortunately we're still four to five-plus months away from that ending."

Ironically that was also when then-Governor Cuomo claimed Western New York suffered less than New York City and that comment drew criticism from some local leaders.

Now a year later, Governor Hochul points out infection rates in Western New York and the Finger Lakes are at over 8% which far exceeds the under 2% rate in New York City. That city has put into place much stricter vaccine-proof mandates and masking. 

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Since November 2020, the Delta variant emerged to derail the dream of COVID tailing off, and of course, there have been ongoing mandate debates.

Currently, the full two-dose vaccination rate for Erie County and much of the region is stuck at 63% with an updated seasonal realization according to Russo. 

He says, "As long as the virus is out there, as long as there are people that are not protected via vaccination, well then the virus is gonna have its way. It's gonna find its way into these individuals. And we're shifting indoors and the virus spreads extraordinarily well in that setting and off we go. And of course yes - it's frustrating. We've had plenty of time to get these shots in arms."

 Also, there is waning immunity as experts say protection provided by the vaccines may be tapering off after six months. That leads to the booster shot recommendation. And doctors say even those with natural immunity from a previous COVID infection may be more susceptible to a relapse.

So Dr. Russo calls for another emphasis on vaccination.  

"Let's start to increase our mask use indoors, in public venues such as grocery stores and other retail stores. And then lastly - if you're feeling ill - don't go to work, don't go out. We know how to do this. We've got the game plan."   

But looking forward Russo also has a warning for the near future. 

"We're seeing the post-Halloween spike. We're moving into Thanksgiving, We've got the religious holidays after that and New Year's. So we really need to gather ourselves right now to minimize the number of cases, hospitalizations, and bad outcomes. I think we're gonna be in for a rough patch over the next couple of weeks and months, unfortunately."

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