BUFFALO, N.Y. — As the state continues to grapple with a potentially dangerous holiday season COVID-19, rates are increasing locally in the new year.
The three regions that make up the western-most portion of New York State have all seen increases in their daily COVID-19 positive test rate from Tuesday to Thursday.
"Frankly, I'm concerned," University at Buffalo infectious disease expert Dr. Thomas Russo said.
Compared to other post-holiday increases, mainly Thanksgiving, Dr. Russo said the recent data after December's religious holidays paints a discouraging picture.
That picture is already showing higher case numbers, which will likely be followed by higher hospitalizations over the next two to three weeks, he predicts.
"January may be a very bad month for Erie County and Western New York," Russo said.
The Western New York region includes Erie, Niagara, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.
The daily percent-positive rate of COVID-19 on December 31 for the Western New York region was 8.01 percent. The rate has been increasing, from 6.82 percent to 7.40 percent, to now 8.01 percent, over the past three days.
This is a significant difference from where the Western New York region was exactly a week ago, on December 24. On that date, the rate was two points lower at 6.01 percent. And the two days surrounding December 24, the rate was floating in the 6 percent range.
"I'd like to think this is a blip, I'm hoping this is a blip, but unfortunately I think we might have let our guard down with the religious holidays, with the potential of a pile-on effect (with) last evening's New Year's Eve festivities," Dr. Russo said.
While in the early stages of the spike, the numbers are playing out very similarly to Thanksgiving. Seven days after that holiday Erie County saw its second and third-highest single day new case totals. Thursday was the fifth-highest according to state data.
In Niagara County, those same days December 3 and 5, a week after Thanksgiving, took the third and sixth spots for highest single-day new case totals.
As for Christmas, this week Niagara County set two back to back records in the same category.
That's compared to Western New York, which had the seventh-highest rate out of 10 regions Thursday. The Finger Lakes region which includes, Monroe, Wayne, Ontario, Livingston, Wyoming, Genesee, and Orleans counties, is doing far worse, nearing 10 percent positive tests.
Over the past three days, the Finger Lakes have increased from 8.80 percent on Tuesday, to 9.22 percent on Wednesday, to 9.70 percent on Thursday.
Mohawk Valley had previously held the highest rate on Tuesday and Wednesday but was surpassed by the Finger Lakes on Thursday.
"I'm hoping it does trend downward in the next couple of weeks, but I think if we truly let our guard down over the religious holidays, I think we're going to see the continued result of that," Dr. Russo said.
Dr. Russo also suspects in addition to holiday gatherings, some pre-mature hope about the COVID-19 vaccines may have also played a role in the increase.
"The vaccine is here but you know so few people have gotten vaccinated that perhaps people think the vaccine is here and it's all good. Well it's not, we're not done with this virus yet until we get the vaccine into a significant amount of individuals and that's really four to five months away," Dr. Russo said.
Until the state reaches a 70-80 percent critical mass of vaccinated patients, social distancing, mask-wearing, and good hand hygiene remain the best defense against the virus.
Here's what hospitals are looking like locally:
Western New York region: 544 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, COVID-19 patients as a percentage of the regional population is 0.04, percent of hospital beds available is 33 percent, percent of ICU beds available is 40 percent.
Finger Lakes region: 919 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, COVID-19 patients as a percentage of the regional population is 0.08, percent of hospital beds available is 32 percent, percent of ICU beds available is 29 percent.
Southern Tier region: 205 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, COVID-19 patients as a percentage of the regional population is 0.03, percent of hospital beds available is 43 percent, percent of ICU beds available is 37 percent.
Additionally, the Southern Tier region, which also makes up the western-most portion of the state with Western New York and the Finger Lakes, saw an increase as well.
The Southern Tier saw it's rate go from 4.05 percent on Tuesday, to 4.43 percent on Wednesday, to 5.16 percent on Thursday.
However, for all three days, the Southern Tier had the lowest rate in the state.