BUFFALO, N.Y. — We are of course a border community with Canada. Cross-border trade between Western New York and the province of Ontario is enormous.
It is not certain if the incoming Trump Administration will actually follow through with a stated 25 percent tariff on products coming from Canada.
But 2 On Your Side found some industry observers are looking at a potential economic impact on local businesses.
First some Canadian connection numbers. The U.S. State Department projects that nearly $2.6 billion in goods and services move across the roughly 5,500-mile border between the United States and Canada every day.
And more specifically, Canada's government estimates that in 2023, $1.9 billion in goods were exported into Canada from Greater Erie County.
So here's an observation from Art Wheaton of the Cornell-Buffalo Institute of Labor and Industry. He is the Director of Labor Studies.
"Anyone who's gone over the border crossings here in the Buffalo area knows you see lots of trucks, and a lot of that is moving product, so the tariffs of 25 percent will mean increased prices for everyone in the U.S. on any product crossing the border," Wheaton said.
Primarily here in Western New York, that involves the auto industry. That is GM in Tonawanda and Lockport and Ford in Hamburg and many other local suppliers. It is hundreds of jobs as those plants turn out engines, or car body parts, or other car components heading north.
But also they go back and forth between the countries perhaps several times before a vehicle is actually assembled.
"The raw ore could be coming in from Canada," Wheaton said. "You could get the aluminum or the steel ... it can come to the U.S. for some processing to get it formed into rolls. You could get it stamped. The parts at the Buffalo stamping plant and have it go back from the Buffalo stamping plant to Ontario, Canada, for the assembly plant."
He pointed out new vehicle prices for SUVs, which already create sticker shock.
"The average is like $40,000 to $50,000. Now you're talking adding maybe $3,000 is the estimate I've heard," he said, adding that "it's going to impact everyone, and yes, it could impact jobs."
Other trade experts warn of an effect on Canadian imports of produce, lumber, and oil.
Perhaps things will change as Donald Trump in his first White House term pushed a similar hard line to change the old NAFTA into the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade agreement. But now he is also pressing the issues of cross-border immigration and deadly fentanyl coming into the United States with pressure on both countries to do more.
Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday, "I had a good call with Donald Trump again last night. We talked about some of the challenges that we can work on together."
2 On Your Side reached out for comment to the United Auto Workers union here in Western New York, but there was no response on this day before Thanksgiving.
We also sought comment on any potential Canadian impact from Republican members of our local Congressional delegation who supported Donald Trump in the election.
Again, it was the day before Thanksgiving, but there was no response from Republican U.S. Representative Nick Langworthy's office.
Republican U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney's office did reply.
"I look forward to working with President Trump to put American workers and companies first and implement commonsense trade policies that will secure our supply chains, promote American competitiveness, and address unfair trade practices from bad actors, like China,” Tenney said.
There was no specific mention of Canada in that statement.