ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Detroit Lions Sunday, Dec. 15 at Ford Field:
1. Saying this game has a strong possibility of being a preview of Super Bowl LIX is closer to fact than hype.
At 12-1, the Lions have the best record in the NFC and share that distinction with Kansas City for tops in the NFL. At 10-3, the Bills are tied with Pittsburgh for the second-best record in the AFC behind the Chiefs.
But it’s fair to say the Lions and Bills are playing better than the rest of the teams in the league, especially when it comes to their dominant offensive production. The Lions are averaging an NFL-best 32.1 points per game, while the Bills are second with 30.5 points per game and have generated at least 30 points in seven consecutive games.
The Lions have set a franchise record with an 11-game winning streak. The Bills had seven wins in a row before last Sunday’s loss against the Rams.
Each team has challengers. Philadelphia and Minnesota, each at 11-2, could have something to say about who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Bills have beat the Chiefs last month but are on another collision course with them for the postseason. The Steelers and Ravens are likely to make their presence felt in the playoffs as well.
Still, when looking at the Bills and Lions, it’s easy to make the case that they are operating at a level above everyone else in contention.
2. The Bills’ defense needs to rebound from an atrocious showing against the Rams. That must start with stopping the run.
The Lions have a pair of dynamic running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They’re the only teammate duo with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and 10-plus scrimmage touchdowns this season. Gibbs has 1,328 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns, while Montgomery has 1,081 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs.
Gibbs and Montgomery work behind one of the best and more powerful offensive lines in the NFL. They’re big and physical, a combination that has proven difficult for the Bills’ smallish defensive front to handle.
The Lions rank fourth in the league with an average of 151.1 rushing yards per game. The Bills, who allowed a season-high 44 points against the Rams, rank 20th in the NFL by giving up an average of 123.1 rushing yards per game.
This could be a replay of the Bills’ September loss at Baltimore, when the Ravens’ O-line manhandled Buffalo’s defenders while Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards and a touchdown.
3. Josh Allen should be in for yet another big game to enhance his status as a front-runner to become the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.
The Lions’ defense ranks second in the league, but has been ravaged with injuries. They’ve had as many as a dozen players on injured reserve, including key starters.
Allen should have little problem finding openings in coverage to connect with his top go-to receiver, Khalil Shakir, as well as Amari Cooper. Keon Coleman is returning from a wrist injury, giving Allen the larger target for contested passes that he has been missing.
Allen, who became the first player in NFL history to throw for three touchdown passes and run for three TDs last week, also will do his share of running against the Lions. The Bills can become the fifth team in league history to score 30 points in eight consecutive games within a single season. The others are the 2013 Denver Broncos, the 2007 and ’10 New England Patriots, and the 2000 St. Louis Rams.
4. Josh Allen isn’t the only top-flight quarterback who will be on the field. The Lions have one of their own in Jared Goff.
Goff ranks second in the NFL with a completion percentage of 72.4. He can become the second quarterback in league history with a completion percentage of 75 or more in eight games in a season, based on a minimum of 15 attempts per game. Tom Brady achieved that in 2007. Goff leads the NFL with an average of 9.2 yards per attempt during the Lions’ 11-game win streak.
The Bills’ ability to defend against Goff and his highly talented receiving duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams could be compromised by the absence of cornerback Rasul Douglas, who is out with a knee injury. Safeties Taylor Rapp (neck/shoulder) and Damar Hamlin (back/ribs) are listed as questionable.
St. Brown leads the Lions with 81 receptions for 863 yards and nine touchdowns, tying him for second in the league with receiving TDs. Williams ranks third in the NFL by averaging 18.2 yards per reception.
5. Despite trailing the Chiefs, the Bills have a decent shot at landing the top seed for the AFC playoffs.
A win against the Lions is a must, of course. The Bills could also get some help when the Chiefs face the Browns at Cleveland Sunday.
It’s more than conceivable that the Bills can close out the season with wins in their final three games against two of the worst teams in the league: home vs. the Patriots and Jets, and the regular-season finale at New England.
It’s also reasonable to think the Chiefs will have their own struggles playing three games in 11 days (at Cleveland on Sunday, then home against Houston on Dec. 21 and at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day) and closing the regular season at Denver.